Health experts in Uganda have raised serious concerns that the country may fail to achieve its 2030 target of ending HIV/AIDS as a public health threat, citing persistent new infections and high rates of AIDS-related deaths. According to the latest data from the Uganda AIDS Commission, the country recorded approximately 37,000 new HIV infections and 20,000 deaths due to AIDS in 2024. Despite significant progress over the past decade, officials warn that the current pace of decline in infections and deaths is insufficient to meet the ambitious elimination goals.
Authorities point to multiple factors driving the continued spread of HIV, including risky sexual behaviour, low levels of condom use, and disproportionately high infection rates among young women and adolescent girls. While Uganda’s adult HIV prevalence among people aged 15 to 49 has slightly declined to 4.9 percent in 2024, down from 5.1 percent in 2023, the total number of people living with HIV remains high, exceeding 1.5 million. Experts argue that unless prevention measures are intensified, young women and other vulnerable populations will continue to experience elevated infection rates, undermining efforts to reduce overall HIV incidence.
Uganda has made notable strides in improving access to HIV treatment and care. The country is approaching the UNAIDS “95‑95‑95” targets, with about 94 percent of people living with HIV aware of their status, 90 percent of those receiving antiretroviral therapy, and 96 percent of patients on treatment achieving viral suppression. AIDS-related deaths have decreased dramatically over the last decade, dropping by 64 percent from 56,000 in 2010 to 20,000 in 2024. These achievements reflect expanded access to treatment, improved awareness campaigns, and efforts to integrate HIV services into broader health programs.
However, health experts, including officials from the Uganda AIDS Commission, caution that these gains are fragile. Dr Vincent Bagambe, head of planning at the commission, emphasized that to meet the 2030 goal, Uganda must reduce both new infections and AIDS-related deaths to below 10,000 annually. At the current trajectory, experts say, the country is unlikely to reach this target without accelerating prevention programs, increasing domestic funding for HIV initiatives, and innovating strategies to reach high-risk populations.
Funding challenges are also a major concern. Recent cuts and freezes in international aid have threatened some HIV programs, and experts warn that reduced support could reverse the progress achieved so far. Civil society organizations and health advocates are calling for increased investment from both government and development partners to strengthen prevention campaigns, scale up access to condoms and testing, and intensify interventions targeting young women and adolescent girls, who remain disproportionately affected.
Uganda’s failure to meet the 2030 goal would have broader public health implications. Continued high rates of infection could strain the healthcare system, increase the number of people requiring lifelong treatment, and undermine national efforts to achieve sustainable development objectives. Experts stress that urgent action is needed to combine treatment, prevention, education, and behavioral change initiatives, ensuring that the country remains on track to eventually eliminate HIV/AIDS as a public health threat.
The warning from health officials serves as a critical reminder that, despite progress in treatment and awareness, Uganda cannot afford to be complacent. Strengthening prevention, expanding healthcare access, addressing social and behavioral factors, and ensuring adequate funding are all necessary steps if the nation hopes to achieve the 2030 elimination goal and secure a future free from the devastating impact of HIV/AIDS.
